A two-stage degradation model considering the stage-varying of dispersity regulation

In reliability analysis, degradation test has been recognized as an effective method for high reliable products and complex systems when key performance indicators can be observed. Then, a reasonable degradation model becomes a key issue to guarantee a reasonable reliability assessment. Motivated by practical needs, this paper proposes a novel two-stage degradation model considering the different dispersity regulations corresponding to the two stages. A maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for unknown parameters is established, and an initial guess procedure is given to improve the efficiency of optimization algorithm. Then, the reliability inference regarding the product population is discussed. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted to validate the proposed approach where the two-stage Wiener process model is adopted as a reference for a better understanding. Finally, the constructed model is further verified by two real applications. Comparative results clearly demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed model.